Macro Market Stress Monitor

Discretionary LLM estimate over time — not a calibrated statistical forecast.

11 Select Sector SPDRs + SPY + GLD, from State Street's own free NAV-history data. Flow is a real creation/redemption signal (share-count change × NAV) — not a price proxy — but it's ETF-vehicle-level, not a complete picture of money entering/leaving the underlying sector; investors can get the same exposure through other ETFs. NAV return is price-only, not total return. The "Inst. 13F (QoQ)" column is institutional-only positioning from SEC 13F filings (all filers, not a curated list) — quarterly and 45+ days lagged, so it confirms whether institutions backed a move, not whether the move is happening sooner.

SEC Form 4 open-market insider buys/sells for the BrokerageLink watchlist, filed within 2 business days of the trade. Filtered to transaction codes P/S only (grants, option exercises, gifts excluded) and to non-10b5-1 trades. Cluster buy = 2+ distinct officers/directors buying in the open market in the trailing 30 days — a single buy or sell is never flagged on its own.

Are big players positioned for or against the market? Each measure is ranked against its own history; the shaded bar ends are extremes (≤10th / ≥90th, not backtested). Extremes read contrarian: a crowd all-in one way is fragility, not confirmation. Futures: CFTC weekly (Tuesday positions, published Friday). Margin debt: FINRA monthly, ~3–4 week lag.

3M/2Y/10Y/30Y yields, three dates overlaid (6 months ago, 3 months ago, today) — a steepening, flattening, or inversion shows up as a shape change here, not something you'd have to scan across table columns to notice. Fed Funds, the dollar index, gold, and federal debt/GDP are tracked individually below and in the Fiscal Dominance Regime Checklist below, rather than folded into this chart.

What moved the curve — last 3 months

A steepening can mean easing expectations, rising inflation expectations or a rising term premium — very different regimes. The 2y is the cleanest read on policy expectations; the 10y is split two approximate ways.

Real-data checks for whether Fed policy is actually constrained by the debt burden — not just whether debt or rates happen to be high (that's the level tracked below). Each card shows its own prior-period comparison — read the direction, not one reading. None of these is a verdict on its own; this is a structural, slow-moving read (reassess roughly quarterly, matching most of these series' own cadence), not a daily flag. See the "Fiscal Dominance Regime Checklist" section of the rules doc for the full methodology.

Latest available reading for each series — not tied to the Stress Monitor tab's selected date, since these aren't stored per crash-check run.